| 11 March 2011
Alright, what we have done for position players, we can now do for pitchers. Here are your top starters, according to fPAA.
| SP | fRAA | SP | fRAA | SP | fRAA | SP | fRAA |
| T Linecum | 5.0 | R Oswalt | 0.7 | Y Gallardo | -1.3 | J Vazquez | -2.5 |
| R Halladay | 3.4 | C Carpenter | 0.6 | T Hudson | -1.5 | J Jurrjens | -2.5 |
| F Hernandez | 3.1 | C Hamels | 0.5 | M Scherzer | -1.7 | A Chapman | -2.6 |
| M Latos | 2.7 | S Strasburg | 0.4 | D Hudson | -1.7 | J Garland | -2.8 |
| C Lee | 2.4 | S Marcum | 0.2 | J Verlander | -1.7 | J Danks | -2.9 |
| Z Grienke | 2.1 | M Cain | -0.1 | J Hellickson | -1.8 | M Bumgarner | -2.9 |
| J Johnson | 2.0 | Jer Weaver | -0.2 | B Anderson | -1.9 | J Garcia | -3.0 |
| J Santana | 1.2 | J Lester | -0.4 | U Jimenez | -1.9 | J Sanchez | -3.0 |
| T Lilly | 1.1 | H Kuroda | -0.7 | W Rodriguez | -2.1 | JA Happ | -3.1 |
| C Kershaw | 1.1 | E Bedard | -0.7 | K Drabek | -2.1 | T Wood | -3.2 |
| CC Sabathia | 0.9 | D Price | -1.0 | M Garza | -2.2 | CJ Wilson | -3.2 |
| T Hanson | 0.7 | C Billingsley | -1.2 | R Nolasco | -2.4 | D Haren | -3.4 |
I should note that our regressed projections use both historical ERA and FIP in predicting the 2011 run average, so they tend to be fairly conservative. There are only about 25 pitchers with predicted ERAs less than 4.00. That's why you see so many starters giving a negative fPAA value, because you need a projected ERA in the mid 3's to positively impact your fantasy team. We've made an attempt to predict wins based on a Pythagorean winning percentage given a pitcher's ERA compared with league average, as well as innings pitched.
And now the top relief pitchers:
| SP | fRAA | SP | fRAA | SP | fRAA | SP | fRAA |
| M Rivera | 6.8 | C Kimbrel | 3.1 | H Kuo | 1.8 | B League | 0.8 |
| J Soria | 6.5 | JJ Putz | 2.9 | L Nunez | 1.8 | R Soriano | 0.7 |
| C Marmol | 5.8 | N Feliz | 2.9 | K Jansen | 1.5 | L Gregerson | 0.7 |
| J Papelbon | 5.4 | J Axford | 2.6 | J Devine | 1.3 | G Balfour | 0.6 |
| H Bell | 5.3 | R Franklin | 2.6 | F Francisco | 1.2 | C Breslow | 0.6 |
| J Broxton | 5.3 | C Perez | 2.6 | T Saito | 1.2 | K Wood | 0.6 |
| J Nathan | 5.3 | B Lidge | 2.6 | J Hanrahan | 1.1 | J Chamberlain | 0.6 |
| B Wilson | 4.7 | M Adams | 2.6 | R Harden | 1.0 | M Guerrier | 0.4 |
| F Rodriguez | 4.3 | F Cordero | 2.3 | JP Howell | 1.0 | R Madson | 0.4 |
| A Bailey | 4.1 | D Storen | 2.2 | D Bard | 0.9 | O Dotel | 0.3 |
| M Thornton | 3.4 | J Valverde | 2.1 | K Uehara | 0.9 | S Downs | 0.2 |
| H Street | 3.3 | D Aardsma | 2.0 | R Ramirez | 0.8 | D Hernandez | 0.0 |
Instead of trying to calculate saves, which are not easily predicted, we simply used the fan predictions from FanGraphs.com. They are pretty good, and I can not do any better. The first non-closer on this list is the Padres' Mike Adams, who is an ultra low-ERA, high-K setup man. Given that relievers will give you about 1/3 the innings of a typical starter, don't forget that they can help lower your team ERA trememdously.
I know that these rankings will inspire the ire of many of you, especially Justin Verlander, Ubaldo Jimenez and Francisco Liriano fans. Sorry, but my projections just don't like them this year. I'll be happy if they prove me wrong.
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