Separated at Birth: Felipe Paulino and Edwin Jackson

Written by redsoxtalk | 07 October 2011

When you think of hard-throwing fastball-slider guys, who do you think of? Edwin Jackson, of course. And his similarity to Felipe Paulino was pointed out in this blog post last summer.

I was looking at pitcher similarity by pitch velocity and selection, and two of the closest matches I could find were Paulino and Jackson. Despite obviously different body types, they are amazingly similar in what they throw. Check this out (2011 data from FanGraphs.com):

And the similarities don't end there. Delve into the PITCHf/x data a bit, and you'll find that even the movement of their pitches is rather similar (career figures, Fangraphs.com):

It looks like Paulino's fastball has more horizontal fade, while Jackson throws a flatter slider and a changeup with a bit more movement. How successful have they been with these pitches? Here are the reported pitch-type run values from 2011 (again, FanGraphs.com; "/C" denotes value per 100 pitches thrown).

So Paulino's fastball has gotten hammered, while Jackson's changeup has been ineffective. If you look at the career numbers, it becomes clear that these two have made a living off of their sliders (Paulino gets 16.2% whiffs on it and Jackson gets 15.3%).

Despite the similarities in what they throw and how often they throw it, they have had markedly different levels of success up to this point. Jackson has a reputation as a pretty good starting pitcher, and has compiled a 4.46 ERA over 1079 innings, while Paulino had looked like one of those guys who just doesn't get how to pitch until just this past year, when he posted, coincidentally, a 4.46 ERA (against his career figure of 5.28). Compare their 2011 peripherals:

One big thing stands out to me - Paulino bests Jackson's K rate by almost two batters per nine, while maintaining slight edged in walks per nine, HRs per nine, and even more ground balls. His FIP and xFIP suggest that he was the better pitcher by a significant amount this year. So how is Jackson throwing almost the same stuff but being so much more successful than Paulino? Clearly, a lot can be explained by the 30 point difference in BABIP, and Jackson has had some pretty good defense behind him. 

But also it seems that Paulino and Jackson are approaching hitters differently. Paulino's higher strikeout numbers suggest that he is trying to set up the slider and go for the strikeout; he sees 4.30 batters in a typical inning, and he throws about 17.3 pitches in that inning. Jackson also faces about 4.31 hitters per inning, but he only requires 16.2 pitches to do it, because he is pitching more to contact.

So what have we discovered here? Analyzing pitching is a difficult, difficult business. It's not as simple as "stuff" or selection, but it also matters how you sequence your pitches and how you make the pitches that count the most. It's great that both these guys have such a wipeout slider, but you've gotta supplement it with a fastball you can throw for strikes and something else just to keep hitters off balance.

So who would you bet on going forward? Which would you rather have? Injuries are always a concern. Guys who rely so heavily on a hard slider tend to find themselves needing surgery after a few years of wear and tear, and they often have to reinvent themselves; just ask Rich Harden. Still, I think that Paulino may have figured out something this year, so I'd try to upgrade the defense behind him take a flyer on him over Jackson. They would have radically different values in the free agent market as well, so that only makes him more attractive as a signing target. I think Paulino could be a pretty solid starter going forward, based on this comparable.